COVID-19 PANDEMIC CAUSES NATIONAL ECONOMIC LOSS

Abstract Activity restrictions due to the Covid-19 pandemic have caused economic losses nationally. This loss will only be covered if the crisis can be ended before causing bankruptcy mass effort. This article was written before the PSBB (Large-Scale Social Restrictions) ended so this analysis is still based on calculations if the PSBB runs for 1 month in the area Jabodetabek.  Meanwhile, if the PSBB is extended and/or expanded to other cities, it will be automatic the impact of losses is enlarged, and can be projected based on a comparison of time and area.  For convenience, the discussion of losses is divided into national, sectoral, and regional loss groups. corporate, and individual. introduction  Background  The Indonesian government began implementing restrictions with social distancing and then a physical distancing policy starting in early March 2020. This policy significantly reduced the activity and movement of people in Jakarta and big cities, commuters, buses and buses, angkot, taxis, inline taxis, bajaj, inline motorcycle taxis and motorcycle taxis. The intercity bus company paralyzed up to 80% of its fleet by mid-March 2020. PT KAI canceled 44 routes from Jakarta to cities in Java in April. Likewise, airlines have started fighting over parking spaces because many of their planes are not operating. Meanwhile, taxi drivers and online taxis complained about a decrease in passenger volume of up to 70%, so most chose to stay active or more than 80%. not effective in preventing the transmission of Covid19. Because some offices and industries remain open and are driven by the necessities of life, many people continue to use private vehicles. Finally, on April 10, with the approval of the central government, the implementation of PSBB in DKI Jakarta began. This was followed by Bodetabek a few days later, and other major cities caused damageeconomy . This article was written before the end of the PSBB so the total loss cannot be determined with certainty. To simplify the calculation, the analysis starts from Jabodetabek, assuming a period of 1 month. Meanwhile, if the PSBB is expanded and/or expanded to other cities, the impact of losses will automatically increase and can be predicted based on a comparison of time and region. , and individual loss groups. Discussion Method This study uses a phenomenological qualitative approach, which is a research method that aims to determine the universal nature of the phenomena experienced by a group of individuals (Cresswell: 1998). in Jakarta from 2 March 2020 to 10 April 2020 Internet media allows users to represent themselves and to interact, collaborate, share, communicate with other users, and to create virtual social links (see Fuchs: 2011). economics.400 at the national level after the implementation of PSBB. The data are replicated, then dealing with the formation of problems, the researchers perform coding, grouping, labeling subjects, and interpreting. Results and Discussion State Losses  The most easily quantifiable losses are aggregate losses at the national level. However, because it is macroscopic, this calculation is only used by large-scale economic actors, or by the State in the preparation of the APBN. Gross Domestic Product, which is the cumulative amount of GDP per capita produced annually by Indonesia in 2019 according to the Central Statistics Agency, is 4,174.9 USD or Rp. 59.1 million. With a population of 267 million, Indonesia's GDP in 2019 was Rp. 15,833 .9 billion. Regional share of GRDP or commonly called GDPR, referring to the previous BPS data, DKI Jakarta was 40.043% of GRDP. Jakarta is 70%. It can also be understood that Jabodetabek affects 70% of Indonesia's GDP. Indonesia's economic growth in 2020 was initially estimated at 5.3%, but this has been adjusted due to the Corona pandemic, and there are estimates of growth below 2% and the difference in projections, as well as the volatility of the US dollar exchange rate, the author chooses to ignore these two factors, namely the rate of economic growth in January to April 2020 and the value of US dollar exchange rate US dollar exchange rate in times of crisis . 2019. So how much is the national economic loss due to the Covid19 pandemic? The cumulative GDP of Jabodetabek is 24.83 of the national GDP. Therefore, the operational limit with the same conditions above, in Jabodetabek for 1 month resulted in a loss of 1/12 X 24.83% X Rp. Trillion X 90% = Rp. 294.85 trillion. If it is extended for 2 weeks, the loss will be around Rp 442.3 trillion. 17.6% to Rp 517.5 trillion from 12 months. Which calculation result is the most valid? Both have a basis of legitimacy. The use of money supply as a benchmark is acceptable with the argument that most large-scale economic activities in the regions involve Jakarta, either through the head office or transactions with third parties. also reflected in cash flow. What needs to be verified is the velocity of money in Jabotabek, whether it is 70% or less. The use of the GDPR to GDP ratio is also acceptable, because the data is a realistic picture of economic activity during the recording period. And this method will also make it easier to calculate whether more regions are implementing PSBB, and at different time periods such as West Sumatra which contributes 1.5% of GDP, PSBB in a month will cause economic losses of around 16,600 billion. rupee. Likewise PSBB in the cities of Pekanbaru, Malang, Tegal, Surabaya, etc. Sectoral Losses  National economic losses will affect the state budget. Mulyani on April 1, 2020. However, for economic players, global quantities are not always used. This is because all industries do not suffer equally. There are even some sectors that benefit from social constraints. Therefore, it is necessary to calculate by industry, then by each company. then support companies; businesses cannot perform physical/social distancing; tertiary product activities whose sales depend on public savings and supporting companies such as leasing and other credit institutions. The energy sector also came under great pressure from commercial activities. Non-PLN trade fell significantly. And many other areas are affected in different ways: health, etc. Of course with these PSBB guidelines, it doesn't take long for people to save money and providers can innovate and provide the right service. Mask manufacturers and sellers have the opportunity to benefit from this. Likewise, suppliers of disinfectants, disinfectants and disinfectants, soaps and their derivatives. lower end, so actually individually, it could be the other way around: the market is still there but sales are down due to an increase in supply.There are also factors that affect location, areas that become deserted will be directly impacted and consumers will move elsewhere. Personal and business losses  In all the calculation of losses above, the final performance is in the domain of individuals and business entities. because of an emergency, providing social security net, caring for the sick, deploying medical staff and additional staff, paying interest on new debts, etc. In its implementation, there is leakage/theft/corruption of state property. State losses are then translated into citizen losses, so that Rp 517 trillion + interest on the new state debt will be reduced to losses for companies and individuals. In general, the actual forms of losses include: For businesses: a. Loss of revenue due to unsold but expenses still occurs, but not completely. Actual losses will vary depending on the type of costs that are still being realized. Among the relatively fixed costs are rent (or depreciation of the building if owned by the owner) and the accompanying operating costs, employee salaries cannot be overstated. payments to suppliers can no longer be deferred, etc. b. There is a fine/penalty for not meeting the delivery deadline c. Damage to goods if stuck in a warehouse or on the road, or incur additional premiums when purchasing insurance. d.Incurring termination costs on excessive execution. .e. Fines/interests arising from the use of relief funds or debts, or failure to pay with the specified amount and time. f. Non-deferred emergency or social funds, etc. g. Loss if the business is forced to sell assets at a low price. o'clock. An invaluable loss if the crisis drains the company's capital, cause the size of the company to shrink or even go bankrupt. i.However, the business may have revenue from past sales invoices, which can further reduce the current month's loss, , or budget deficit. With a record of successful collection, customers can pay when needed. For individuals: a. Loss of wages and/or benefits in times of crisis or loss of income for informal trade/professional organizations b. Fines/interest for lateness or non-payment of obligations (e.g. credit payments, debts due, etc.) and Losses are insignificant if this is the case resulting in payments that are not in accordance with Bank Indonesia ratings. c. Additional expenses for family members in an emergency d. Interest on new debt if used and guaranteed. . Dealing with Loss in business There are always gains and losses. For business people who have diversified into sectors with different types of business at different poles, it is very possible to survive the crisis. For example, they lost their party equipment rental business because all crowd activities were prohibited, besides that they also had a garden planted with various kinds of vegetables. In times of crisis, the demand for horticultural products increases. for delivery.And something similar can happen. For large-scale businesses, cross-sector aggregation often occurs so that cross-subsidies can be realized between group business units. In general, they may suffer losses, but they can still be saved by companies in other industries. The problem is if agglomeration occurs in the same sector, for example from upstream to downstream, and does not penetrate other sectors. For companies that have cash, they can also face losses, such as buying a good asset or selling it at a low price. It is possible that money is earned by selling an asset at a low price (i.e. recording a loss), but if it is used to buy other assets of high quality, better, it can make a profit. And once the crisis is over, new assets can either outperform or be sold. at a much higher price, enough to cover the loss. What if diversification or other measures cannot be taken to reduce losses? In the end, generally the same steps will be taken, namely savings. People will try to cut costs as much as possible, and try to survive as long as possible. Also, if this is still not enough, it is necessary to take the next step, ie looking for a loan or debt. Then look for ways to get income or new income. Such actions will be taken by individuals, micro-enterprises, Global car makers such as Toyota have asked for new debt of around $9 billion (Rp 135 trillion) to overcome the crisis (www.bisnis.com, 27/03/20). Austerity measures, seeking loans and finding new income are common measures for survival. Surviving in times of crisis is considered very important, is a source of capital to find ways to offset losses after the crisis. Because if you can't survive then crash before the crisis is over, all potential gain from loss will be lost. For example, if a company goes bankrupt, all that can be done is to release assets to cover its debts, the company can no longer operate. maybe even the shareholders still owe the inheritance. Meanwhile, if the company persists, it can still handle it even though it has to pay off new debt, there is still hope for profit after the crisis is over. If all individuals, business organizations, non-commercial organizations and all regions of a country can go through the crisis, survive and continue to produce, then at the end of the year the national losses will be compensated. pay more taxes, maybe even more than . It will also absorb new workers thereby increasing personal income by , which in turn will increase state income and increase GDP. non-commercial organizations and all regions of a country can go through a period of crisis, survive and continue to produce, then at the end of the year the national loss will be compensated. pay more taxes, maybe even more than . It will also absorb new workers thereby increasing personal income by , which in turn will increase state income and increase GDP. non-commercial organizations and all regions of a country can go through a period of crisis, survive and continue to produce, then at the end of the year the national loss will be compensated. pay more taxes, maybe even more than . It will also absorb new workers thereby increasing personal income by , which in turn increases state income and increases GDP. Closing 

Conclusion From the description above, it can be concluded that the key to the recovery of national economic conditions is survival at the individual and corporate levels. Therefore, the state must make every effort, including providing stimulus measures, so that its population does not decline during the period . It is important that the policy is correct, both in terms of location, time, and procedure. If PSBB can secure the termination of the Covid 19 transmission chain, then do it properly and ASAP. Limit stretching or changing positions because not simultaneously, there is a risk of limiting the overshoot of each individual and the existence of businesses. And if that happens, then rescue will not be possible, and the damage will be even greater both economically and socially.