Is Bitcoin, or other private digital money will be in the future for obese parallel and partner currency of dollars, euros and Swiss francs? If such cryptocurrency ultimately even displace the currently established currencies and take their place as the dominant currency? Technology enthusiasts future prophets and critics of the state central bank monopolies tend to see it that way. Realistically, however, chances are that there will be such a development, bad.
Requirements are not met
A currency must meet three requirements in order to be successful. It must, first, if possible in general in their application range and unconditionally as currency (exchange medium) may be accepted.This requirement is not met by Bitcoin and Co. today. Crypto currencies like Bitcoin will be accepted until now only an extremely small number of partners as a means of payment; in payments overall they play an insignificant role.
Of course, that could change in principle. Only the use of a payment instrument is strongly influenced by "network effects": A money is for the potential users, the more valuable the greater his circle of users and the number of those who accept it easily. The coexistence of different currencies is set a clear boundary for this reason, and once established currencies can be very difficult to displace.
This danger they would at most be suspended if extremely bad fulfill their role, such as hyperinflation and very high monetary value instability. but even then it takes a lot according to historical experience, to a displacement actually occurs. There is also the question of whether "virtual" currency would have a real chance under such conditions. More likely in this case would probably return to a "were bound" currency, a metal currency standard because trust and credibility of central importance just then - and these are particularly difficult to manage for virtual currencies.
With the use as generally accepted means of payment associated, second, almost always the role of a computer unit system-wide: The unit of currency is used as a uniform rating scale ( "numéraire») economic goods and activities. Such is for the functioning of an economy of comparable importance to uniform weights for mass, distances or temperatures. This function is nowhere filled with Bitcoin today. This would require prices (in supermarket, restaurant, sales catalogs, etc.) and wages are given (in employment contracts of all kinds) in Bitcoins held in Swiss francs, euros or dollars. Enterprises and households would have to do their accounting in Bitcoins, and contracts of all kinds would be completed in Bitcoins. The Bitcoin would be the final accounting unit, and other values would be converted into Bitcoins. Today, it is exactly the opposite: The conversion from bitcoins in one of the existing currencies is in the foreground ( "how many francs, euros or dollars are my Bitcoins worth today?"). If Bitcoin would be a real currency, you would not convert the time, but think in Bitcoins and calculate.
A currency must, thirdly, be suitable as a store of value. This assumes that it has a very high purchasing power stability for goods and services. The primary role of central banks as issuers of their currencies is to ensure just that. If they do not, or not adequately, they reduce the quality of issued money they this task. How does Bitcoin from in this regard? Worse it could not be!
Bitcoin will remain very likely what it is today: a small, private
network for payments where the "mental" but billing is done in an established currency.
The evaluation of Bitcoin in francs, euros or dollars has undergone extreme fluctuations since its introduction in in 2009. From a price of around 12 50 dollars in late November 2012, she rose to the end of November 2013, more than 1,000 dollars in (with a peak at well 1,100 US dollars shortly before the end of November), so more than 80 times (8,000 percent of baseline) , only to fall back to then to the end of 2014 to around 200 dollars, accompanied by wild fluctuations in the meantime. Currently, the Bitcoin price fluctuates between 800 and 900 dollars, after a temporary high of more than 1,100 US dollars earlier this year.
As the purchasing power of the dollar (or franc and the euro) as measured by the consumer price index remained fairly stable at this time, so were the prices of goods - we would have measured in Bitcoins - killed in the period from November 2012 to November 2013 by about a factor of 80 - what 8000 monetary units cost was to have a year later for 100 monetary units. This corresponds to an unimaginable deflation of commodity prices, in addition to the deflation of the Great Depression in the 1930s completely faded. Then to periods of high inflation and strong deflation had hunted.
For a useful money, this would be unacceptable properties. If Bitcoin really wanted to be a currency that would have to be ensured that its purchasing power remains sufficiently stable. The central challenge each currency issuers, it is going to provide assurance that the supply remains tight in the long term with his money, but in the short term - with a view of seasonal and cyclical fluctuations and in response to the financial and economic crises - yet is sufficiently flexible.
This task is also the issuer of a cryptocurrency would ask. He should ensure that the outstanding amount of its money is matched with fluctuating demand for money so that the price level (measured in its currency) remains stable. A fixed, maximum forever fixed, predetermined amount of cash - is in accordance with previous in Bitcoin presentation of the case - not suited to sure and who believes a simple algorithm by virtue of this task to meet, does not pale from the real problems of monetary policy Idea.
Toys and speculation
Bitcoin will therefore remain very likely what it is today - a small, private network for payments where the final ultimately still done "mental" accounting in an established currency such as Swiss francs, euros or dollars and - above all: a small, somewhat secretive instrument of speculation. Here - at the huge increase in value, which one (if all goes well) with this instrument can achieve - is obviously a fascination for the aficionados. but that is the exact opposite of what you want from a good currency.
One seems to me, moreover, political economy pretty clear: If a provider such as Bitcoin actually even reach a dominant position as a real currency (contrary to my expectations), it would hardly take long before he would be taken over by the state and similarly regulated and controlled as today Central banks and payment systems.
To avoid misunderstandings, is finally also noted that all Discussed must be clearly distinguished from the questions then here is whether the digitization of the financial services sector will progress (which is very likely) and whether new technologies such as block chain (based on the Bitcoin) the future of will dominate payments (which is possible, but so far is open). These instruments are basically established, issued by the central banks of currencies just as available as Bitcoin or other possible new competitors.
0 Comments